New from Mckinsey... Quite rich and robust. My initial takeaway: - ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐ต๐ถ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐น๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ตโฆ | ๐
New from Mckinsey... Quite rich and robust.
My initial takeaway:
- ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐ต๐ถ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐น๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ต. Roughly 11 million US workers in declining occupations may need to move into new jobs, with a range of six to 16 million depending on how fast automation is adopted. Only about one in seven can make the move with little or no retraining, and nearly half face a much harder route. The report also says this will require about 770,000 workers a year to switch occupational groups, roughly 3.6 times the historical average.
- ๐ข๐ป๐ด๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฎ๐ ๐ท๐ผ๐ฏ ๐๐๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด. More than 70 percent of workers could need some level of reinvention, since new tasks may take up more than 15 percent of their time. The report adds that most workers will need to keep building new skills whether their occupation is growing, shrinking, or stable. It also notes that lower-wage workers have far fewer high-quality pathways and will need targeted support such as training and career navigation.
- ๐ฆ๐ธ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฐ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ ๐บ๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป. McKinsey groups skills into three types: essential skills that widen career options, enabling skills that unlock higher pay, and empowering skills that prepare workers for constant change. Still, the authors warn that training is not enough by itself: it cannot remove licensing rules, change hiring practices, or pay workers while they train. About 85 percent of growing jobs require some kind of credential.
If only one in seven displaced workers can switch jobs with minimal retraining, we have a lot of work ahead and very little time to prove it can do it.
The 2 most compelling charts:
Exhibit 20: Skills by average wage and share of occupations
The chart plots each skill by how many occupations require it against the average wage, revealing three clear groups: niche high-paying skills cluster near zero percent of occupations but reach wages of roughly $130,000 to nearly $300,000, enabling skills like collaboration, decision-making, innovation, and critical thinking sit in the middle at roughly $85,000 to $115,000, and essential skills like leadership, problem-solving, and people and process management appear in 75 to 100 percent of occupations at around $60,000 to $70,000.
Exhibit 24: Barriers to entering growing occupations
85 percent of growing occupations require a credential, 76 percent require physical presence, 25 percent sit at the bottom wage quintiles, and workers in growing occupations average 91 percent English proficiency. Together, they show that credentials and location are near-universal gates, while language is a quieter but real filter for non-native speakers.
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